# Read Musk's Grok 5 AGI estimate as an opinion

> The October 2025 post gave a personal probability estimate without a published evaluation method.

Source: https://fullbytedeveloper.com/blog/musk-grok-five-agi-estimate
Originally posted: 2025-10-27
Published here: 2026-11-06

On 2025-10-18, Elon Musk assigned a 10 percent and increasing probability to Grok 5 achieving artificial general intelligence. He explicitly presented the figure as his estimate. [1]

## What the number does not establish

The post did not provide an evaluation method, a test set or a definition of the threshold being estimated. It therefore cannot be read as an independently measured probability or a demonstrated model capability.

An estimate can change as its author receives new information. Without a stated method, readers cannot reproduce the number or compare it directly with someone else's estimate.

## Ask for an observable claim

For a concrete model task, define what success looks like: completing a specified project, answering a fixed set of questions or maintaining a valid plan over several steps. Then examine the results and failures under those conditions.

That evidence answers a narrower question than whether a model has reached general intelligence, but it is easier to check. The original post records Musk's confidence at one point in time; it does not establish that the forecast came true.

## Sources

1. [Elon Musk October18 Grok5 estimate](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1979431839824777673)

## Original posts

- [Instagram post](https://www.instagram.com/fullbytedeveloper/p/DQUe9ziDItY/)